Aureva Capital - Weekly Newsletter - 20th Sep 2026
Aureva Capital's weekly market memo for September 20, 2026. Discover key insights as global markets slip amid surging crude oil prices past $100 and simultaneous rate hikes by the Fed and BOJ.
MARKET UPDATE
Week ended 18 September 2026
Markets slip as crude surges past $100 on Middle East supply risk; Fed and BOJ both hike rates
Here is your weekly market update — a snapshot of where major indices, commodities and currencies stand, followed by the key developments across the economy, markets, corporate activity and the week ahead.
1. MARKET AT A GLANCEIndices Performance
| Index | 11-Sep | 18-Sep | 1W Chg |
| Broad Market | |||
| Nifty 50 | 23,398.1 | 23,346.4 | -0.2% |
| Sensex | 74,781.8 | 74,295.0 | -0.7% |
| Nifty Midcap 150 | 16,859.2 | 16,859.6 | 0.0% |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 | 7,225.7 | 7,202.9 | -0.3% |
| Sectoral Indices (BSE) | |||
| BSE Healthcare | 51,238.1 | 51,438.3 | +0.4% |
| BSE Oil & Gas | 25,596.4 | 25,651.1 | +0.2% |
| BSE FMCG | 17,169.5 | 17,199.7 | +0.2% |
| BSE Metal | 41,199.2 | 41,215.4 | 0.0% |
| BSE Auto | 60,385.2 | 60,198.1 | -0.3% |
| BSE Power | 7,496.6 | 7,445.9 | -0.7% |
| BSE IT | 27,823.5 | 27,612.5 | -0.8% |
| BSE Bankex | 64,025.1 | 63,516.9 | -0.8% |
| BSE Capital Goods | 77,540.1 | 76,861.9 | -0.9% |
| BSE PSU | 20,265.7 | 20,082.8 | -0.9% |
| BSE Realty | 6,629.4 | 6,556.3 | -1.1% |
| BSE Consumer Durables | 62,332.7 | 60,245.9 | -3.3% |
3M/6M/12M change was not disclosed for domestic indices in this week's data; only the 1-week change is shown above.
Global Market Update
| Index | 1W | 1M | 3M | 12M |
| DJIA (USA) | -1.5% | -3.2% | +0.4% | +12.2% |
| Nasdaq (USA) | +0.3% | +0.3% | -0.4% | +17.6% |
| S&P 500 (USA) | -0.3% | -0.9% | +1.8% | +15.2% |
| Russell 2000 (USA) | -1.0% | -5.2% | -3.5% | +16.5% |
| DAX (Germany) | +0.6% | -1.4% | +2.9% | +8.6% |
| CAC 40 (France) | +0.1% | -3.7% | -2.8% | +4.2% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | +1.6% | +0.7% | +4.4% | +17.2% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | +0.5% | -1.3% | +1.1% | +15.8% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +1.6% | -0.5% | -8.7% | +43.5% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | -0.2% | -2.9% | +3.5% | -6.8% |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | +0.6% | +0.4% | -4.4% | +2.1% |
| KOSPI (Korea) | -0.2% | +6.5% | -23.8% | +99.2% |
| Straits Times (Singapore) | -0.7% | -0.7% | +8.9% | +31.2% |
| SET (Thailand) | -1.3% | -1.6% | +0.7% | +22.1% |
| S&P/ASX 100 (Australia) | -0.2% | -3.7% | -0.9% | +0.5% |
| Bovespa 50 (Brazil) | -0.6% | +10.8% | +10.5% | +27.8% |
Global markets were mixed over the week — the FTSE 100 and Japan's Nikkei each added about 1.6%, while the Dow Jones led declines, down 1.5%, and Thailand's SET slipped 1.3%. Over 12 months, Korea's KOSPI (+99.2%) and Japan's Nikkei (+43.5%) continue to stand out with exceptionally strong returns.
Global Commodity Update
| Commodity | Last | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 12M |
| Brent Crude ($/barrel) | 104.8 | +0.2% | +14.4% | +30.1% | -6.6% | +55.4% |
| Natural Gas Spot ($/mmBtu) | 2.9 | +7.6% | -1.1% | -5.9% | -3.9% | -2.3% |
| Coal – Newcastle ($/Ton) | 145.3 | -1.8% | +6.0% | +10.8% | -3.3% | +22.0% |
| Copper LME ($/Ton) | 14,491.4 | +1.8% | +0.9% | +7.1% | +22.4% | +46.8% |
| Aluminium LME ($/Ton) | 3,321.5 | +1.4% | +3.4% | -2.3% | +2.1% | +23.5% |
| Zinc LME ($/Ton) | 3,964.5 | -1.8% | +4.2% | +11.6% | +30.3% | +34.8% |
| Nickel LME ($/Ton) | 16,126.7 | -1.2% | -4.8% | -7.3% | -4.2% | +6.8% |
| Gold ($/Troy Ounce) | 4,341.7 | -0.2% | -3.9% | +4.5% | -3.4% | +19.1% |
| Silver ($/Troy Ounce) | 65.2 | +1.1% | -2.6% | +0.5% | -4.0% | +55.9% |
| Raw Sugar ($/lb.) | 17.4 | -4.0% | -0.7% | +28.2% | +11.0% | +13.3% |
| Cotton ($/lb.) | 82.2 | -4.5% | -7.0% | +3.1% | +14.2% | +18.0% |
| Rubber (JPY/kg) | 462.6 | -4.2% | -3.4% | +7.6% | +23.4% | +44.6% |
| Coffee Robusta ($/lb.) | 3,361.0 | -3.8% | -9.6% | -7.7% | -11.0% | -28.0% |
| Palm Oil Malaysia Spot ($/Ton) | 1,195.0 | +0.4% | +0.8% | +4.6% | -1.8% | +9.6% |
| Baltic Dry Index (points) | 3,336.0 | -4.9% | +20.2% | +22.6% | +62.3% | +51.3% |
Gold, crude and copper firm on a softer dollar. Gold was on track for a roughly 2% weekly gain even after the Fed's rate hike and hawkish guidance for further increases, which lifted the dollar; elevated US yields could cap further gains near term, though markets are pricing more hikes than the Fed's own projections, leaving room for rate-expectation moderation and dollar weakness to support the metal. Crude prices diverged through the week — Brent slipped about 0.5% for its first weekly loss in three as easing Saudi supply concerns offset renewed Middle East tensions, while WTI gained around 1.2%. Copper was on track for a weekly gain as recovering Chinese demand offset the hawkish Fed tone; with copper up roughly 16% year-to-date, tariff-driven US import demand has tightened availability elsewhere.
Dollar firms on Fed tightening; rupee holds steady near 95.80. The US Dollar Index rose about 1% to 100.23 this week following the Fed's rate hike and hawkish guidance, though it could remain vulnerable to dovish repricing if energy prices and inflation ease. The rupee was largely flat at around 95.80/US$, as corporate dollar demand and the Fed hike were offset by RBI intervention and ample INR liquidity; elevated oil prices and US yields remain the key risks to watch.
3. INDIAN COMPANIES UPDATE
▪ Tata Sons: Facing renewed IPO pressure as the RBI reportedly pushes for a public listing to ensure the company adheres to regulatory requirements.
▪ HDFC Bank: Board approved the appointment of a new CEO and executive directors, and will seek RBI approval for the appointments; an additional director role was also approved to strengthen oversight.
▪ Sun Pharmaceutical: Sun Pharma and its subsidiaries entered into a settlement in the Generic Pharmaceuticals Pricing Antitrust Litigation in the US for a confidential amount, providing a full release of claims.
▪ HCL Technologies: Expanded its partnership with CrowdStrike, integrating CrowdStrike Falcon Guardian into its AI security services to strengthen protection for AI-powered systems.
▪ One97 Communications, Pine Labs, MobiKwik: In focus after the government announced an increase in MDR for UPI transactions; Yes Bank and Bank of Baroda also remained in focus.
▪ Titagarh Rail Systems & BHEL: Signed a long-term maintenance agreement and formed a 50:50 joint venture to maintain 80 Vande Bharat sleeper trainsets for 35 years, part of the ₹24,000 crore Indian Railways order.
▪ Adani Enterprises: Secured a Letter of Award from National Highways Logistics Management to build a 12.9 km ropeway from Sonprayag to Kedarnath, cutting travel time from nine hours to 36 minutes.
▪ Groww (Billionbrains Garage Ventures): Peak XV Partners and Sequoia Capital are likely to sell up to 10.02 crore equity shares (1.6% of equity) via a block deal worth about ₹1,918.3 crore.
▪ Infosys: Announced the expansion of its Indore Development Center to strengthen its presence in Central India, with enhanced capabilities in AI, cloud, cybersecurity and digital services.
▪ Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders: Signed an MoU with National Shipbuilding & Heavy Industries Park Maharashtra to participate as the Anchor Shipyard in the proposed Greenfield Shipbuilding Industrial Cluster at Dighi.
▪ Fortis Healthcare: Signed definitive agreements with Seth Sunder Lal Jain Charitable Eye Hospital to provide healthcare services at a 400+ bed super-specialty hospital in Ashok Vihar, New Delhi.
▪ ITC: Increased prices of two cigarette brands — Classic Connect (pack of 20) to ₹428 from ₹390, and Gold Flake Superstar (pack of 10) to ₹89 from ₹79.
▪ InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo): Revised charges for excess baggage, infant tickets, unaccompanied-minor arrangements and its Fast Forward priority service, with rates raised across the board.
▪ Bharat Forge: Launched a qualified institutional placement (QIP) with a floor price of ₹1,947.70 per share; the issue size may be around ₹2,000 crore, with a possible discount of up to 5%.
▪ Wipro: Announced the launch of Wipro STO360, developed in collaboration with Aramco and SAP, to help asset-intensive organisations manage shutdown, turnaround and outage activities.
4. GLOBAL COMPANIES UPDATE
Apple's iPhone Duo launch adds $164bn in a single session. Apple launched its first folding phone, the iPhone Duo, priced from ₹2,99,900 to ₹4,49,900 in India. Shares rose about 3.6% the next session, adding roughly $164 billion in market value and taking the company's worth to about $4.77 trillion — a striking figure against expected shipments of around 6 million units this year. Korean component makers, however, did not celebrate: suppliers were reportedly asked for prices around 30% below existing levels, and on memory chips — where Samsung, SK hynix and Micron are the only major suppliers — Apple's usual pricing leverage appears to be weakening as AI-related demand lifts chipmakers' bargaining power.
OpenAI's "AGI era" claim draws scrutiny. OpenAI released its GPT-6 Astra model, with leadership suggesting the announcement could mark the arrival of artificial general intelligence. Independent testing body ARC Prize found a large gap between the model's score under OpenAI's own test setup (99.9%) and under a neutral, standardised setup (62.7%) on the same benchmark — and was careful to state it was not claiming the model constitutes AGI. The episode has renewed debate over how AI capability claims should be measured and verified.
India advances digital rupee with first tokenised bond settlement. At the Global Fintech Fest in Mumbai, the finance minister urged the RBI to sharpen and expand its digital rupee pilots as tokenisation gathers pace globally. Days earlier, REC Limited completed India's first tokenised corporate bond issue within the regulator's testing sandbox, raising ₹500 crore with payment, allotment and listing all settling on the same day via the digital rupee. Even so, digital rupee circulation fell about 24% over the past year even as usage pilots expanded — underscoring that its early traction looks to be institutional rather than retail.
5. QUARTERLY RESULTS FOR NEXT WEEK
With the September-quarter results season yet to get underway in earnest, corporate activity next week is expected to be dominated by ongoing capital-market transactions and board actions rather than scheduled earnings. Several companies have board meetings lined up in the coming week around fund-raising, preferential allotments and NCD issuances, while open offers for a number of small and mid-cap names remain in progress through late September and October.
On the macro front, market participants will track India's August IIP print, US weekly jobless claims and current account data, and September flash PMI readings from India and the US, all of which will help set the tone heading into the festive-season trading period.
6. ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR NEXT WEEK
| Date | Region | Event | Previous | Forecast |
| 22-Sep-26 | US | ADP Employment Change (Weekly) | 16.30K | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | US | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 7.140M | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | IN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 52.8 | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | IN | S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | 54.1 | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) | 53.9 | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | US | S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) | 56.5 | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep) | 56.0 | — |
| 23-Sep-26 | US | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.640M | — |
| 24-Sep-26 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196K | — |
| 24-Sep-26 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,730K | — |
| 25-Sep-26 | US | Fed's Balance Sheet | 6,747B | — |
| 25-Sep-26 | US | Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) | 4.0% | 4.60% |
| 25-Sep-26 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) | 51.7 | 47.8 |
For information and education only; not investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. Mutual fund and securities investments are subject to market risks; past performance does not guarantee future results.